AG2 TROPICAL REPORT July 3 2013

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON
ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY ---
WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 17.5N 108.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX
HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND
DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 108.0W ---
FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 17.1N 108.9W MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.8N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05
KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 16.8N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48
HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.9N 112.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055
KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050
KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR
POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN155 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 94.9W TO 14.1N 100.5W WITHINTHE NEXT
06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OFNUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREAARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031830ZINDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 95.9W. THESYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 11.8N95.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 95.9W, APPROXIMATELY
370 NM SOUTHEASTOF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERYSHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTERINTO APARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS
ALSODISCERNIBLE ON A 031555Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSISINDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREAOF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER,ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUMSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEALEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE
IMPROVINGENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ASIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
S$

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