SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA655 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY JULY 11
2012 FORECAST VALID...MONDAY JULY16 2012 ...UPDATE TO SUMMER
OUTLOOK... ...THE JULY YEAR GROUP AND SUMMER OUTLOOK FOLLOWS THE
FORECASTS... ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF ARCTIC
FRONTS WILL MOVE FROM RUSSIAACROSS THENORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND THE
BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOWPRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA. -ARCTIC OCEAN--BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC
OFFSHORE-PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ500-WESTERN USARCTIC
OFFSHORE-PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT- PKZ240-CAPE
HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE
BEAUFORT- ICE COVERED. ALARGE AREA OF OPEN WATER EXTENDS FROM WESTERN
BANKSISLAND TO 141W AND SOUTH OF 73N. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ220-WALES TO
CAPE THOMPSON-PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND- THE ICE EDGE LIES ROUGHLY 70 NM
NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. THE ICEEDGE IS OPEN WATER. EASTERN
KOTZEBUE SOUND IS ICE FREE. A LARGE AREAOF OPEN WATER LIES IN THE
CENTRAL CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH OF 69.8N. FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...OPEN
WATER WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF 70N.ICE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST FROM
POINT LAY TO POINTBARROW. ICEALONG THE KIVALINA COAST WILL DIMINISH
WITH SMALL AREAS OF LOWER ICE CONCENTRATION DEVELOPING AND MOVING WITH
THE CURRENTS. KOTZEBUE SOUNDWILL BE ICE FREE BY MONDAY. KCOLE 2012$$
...JULY 2012 YEAR GROUP AND SUMMER ICE OUTLOOK... THE YEAR GROUP FOR
JULY IS 2008. AT THE START OF JULY 2012 ICE IN THECHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT
SEAS IS SIMILAR TO ICE AT THE SAME TIME IN 2008.WINTER AND SPRING
WEATHER PATTERNS ARE ALSO SIMILAR. PACIFIC OCEAN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING AND THE PATTERNIS CHANGING FROM LA NINA TO
EL NINO. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS
EXPECTING AN EL NINO TO DEVELOP OVER THENEXT FEW MONTHS. THIS WAS NOT
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SUMMER ANDFALL OF 2008. WARMING WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC...ADEVELOPING EL NINO...WAS THE PATTERN
FOR 2009. SEA ICE IN THE CHUKCHISEA TODAY IS SIMILAR TO THE ICEEXTENT
IN EARLY JULY 2009. THE OUTLOOK BELOW IS BASED ON THE 2008 AND 2009
SUMMER AND FALL ICESEASONS. I TRENDED TOWARD 2008 FOR THE EARLIER
EVENTS AND TOWARD2009 FOR THE LATER EVENTS. ...2012 SUMMER ICE
OUTLOOK... UPDATED FOR EVENTS IN JULY... EVENT
2012 DATEICE FREE SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE 11
JULYKIVALINA COAST ICE FREE 21 JULY
...UPDATED...KIVALINA COAST LESS THAN 3/10ICE 17 JULY
...ADDED...KOTZEBUE SOUND ICE FREE 16 JULY ICE
FREE SOUTH OF CAPE LISBURNE 21 JULY...UPDATED...WATERS TO
POINT LAY ICE FREE 23 JULY ...UPDATED...WAINWRIGHT ICE
FREE 23 JULY ...UPDATED...AROUND POINT BARROW
ICE FREE SEVERAL TIMES FROM
SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH
OCTOBER 15 THEN OPEN
UNTIL FREEZE UP AK NORTH COAST ICE FREE 25 AUGUST
POINT BARROW TO CANADA EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA OPEN TO72N 1
SEPTEMBER ...EARLY 2012 FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK... NEW ICE ALONG BEAUFORT
COAST 20 TO 25 SEPTEMBERNEW ICE ALONG CHUKCHI COAST
25 TO 30 SEPTEMBERFIRST ICE ALONG KIVALINA COAST
15 TO 20 OCTOBERFIRST ICE ALONG NOME COAST 1ST
WEEK OF NOVEMBERFIRST ICE UPPER COOK INLET 1ST WEEK
OF NOVEMBERTHE ICE IN THE BEAUFORT SEA IS OPENING QUICKLY FROM THE
EAST. ICEOVER RUSSIA IS ALSO DIMINISHING FASTER THAN NORMAL. IT IS
LIKELY ICEIN THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR.
BROKEN ICE INTHE CHUKCHI WILL RESPOND QUICKLY TO CHANGING WIND
CONDITIONS...MOVINGNORTH AND SOUTH OUT OF AND INTO ALASKA WATERS
SEVERAL TIMES FROMEARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH MID-OCTOBER. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OFMULTI-YEAR ICE
POSITIONED TO MOVE INTO THE OPENING WATERSOF THEBEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI
SEAS. MULTI-YEAR ICE IS SEA ICE THAT HASSURVIVED AT LEAST ONE
SUMMERMELT SEASON. MULTI-YEAR ICE TENDS TO BETHICKER AND MORE DENSE
THAN YOUNGER ICE. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OFMULTI-YEAR ICE NEAR THE ICE
EDGE COULD DELAY THE ICE RETREAT BYSEVERAL WEEKS. THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE
UPDATED THE SECOND WEEK IN AUGUST. KCOLE$$

--
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