AG2 TROPICAL REPORT June 29 2013

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED
ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY ---
WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 121.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX
HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND
RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS
050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N
121.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.1N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID
AT: 301800Z --- 18.0N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310
DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 19.8N 114.1E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED
OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 21.7N 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.3N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI/282000Z JUN 13//AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC282000)//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N
103.5W TO 11.4N 103.1WWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ATTHIS
TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
METSATIMAGERY AT 291832Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATEDNEAR 12.3N 103.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT
09KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.8N 104.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.2W, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS STARTED TO FORM ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 291906Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED 15-20 KNOT
WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW (5 TO 10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 18 AND 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
S$

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