AG2 TROPICAL REPORT WITH ALERT June 27 2013

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN210 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 130.8E TO 13.1N 126.2EWITHIN THE NEXT
06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ATTHIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 271452Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 9.0N 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 130.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 509 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILLIPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
CONSOLIDATING BENEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN PALAU AND
MINDANAO. A 271106Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, BUT
IMPROVING, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLEAROUND THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 271452Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS. A 271800Z NEARBY SHIP REPORT
INDICATED 230 WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND 1006.9 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASING,BUT STILL
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, POSSIBLY INCREASING ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
S$

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