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Sunday, June 30, 2013

Highs in The Central Valley of California come close to Record Highs but no cigar

EVEN THO HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM ALASKA NEAR 100 DEGREES NEAR A
WEEK AGO HAVE PRODUCED TEMPERATURES TO 107 IN MODESTO MUCH LIKE NEAR
SAME IN STOCKTON AND SACRAMENTO STILL BY 2 DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD
ON SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY ANOTHER DEGREE HAS BEEN CUT BY A UP COMING
MARINE LAYER BEGINING TO PUSH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND IN THAT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO UPPER AVERAGE OF 91 DEGREES TO NEAR
UPPER 90'S BY TUESDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK - SOOOO THE BIG HEAT
WAVE ANOTHER BUST WITH THE HIGHS SHORT TO THE FORECAST OF 111 DEGREES
WHICH DOES EXIST IN THE DESERT NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN NEEDLES
WITH SUCH IN THEIR POCKET - OTHER THEN THAT THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAVE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DOES AFFECT
FIRE DANGER IN THAT AREA AND TO ALL THAT NOTE THE NEW SUPPORT OF JODIE
FOSTER IN FLORIDA SHOOTING OF SUNSHINE GIRLS THAT IS RELATED TO MOTION
PICTURE OUTLOOK AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH MINOR IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY DURING THE DAY. ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL ENTER
APPALACHIA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A SECOND MOVES SWD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AIDS IN ENHANCING NLY UPPER
FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE OVER THE WRN
CONUS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM
ONTARIO INTO TX...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OCCURRING OVERTHE HIGH PLAINS/SRN
ROCKIES. OVER THE ERN CONUS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SWWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
...ERN AL...CNTRL/NRN GA INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND NRN OH
VALLEY... UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL FOCUS A BELT
OF 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL SWLYS FROM AL/GA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...THE STRONG FLOW ALOFTWILL
YIELD LONG HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEAK
BUOYANCY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/70S
COMBINED WITH POOR LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM
500-1000 J/KG. POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY AID IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THOUGH THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE MARGINAL.
...CO/NM... LOW-LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR INVOF THE SRN
ROCKIES IN CO/NM DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING LOW 50S DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A MINOR
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING S OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITHA
50 KT MIDLEVEL NLY SPEED MAX LOCATED OVER ERN CO/NM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILLYIELD LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS OVER THE
REGION SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN WEAK BUOYANCY /MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J PER KG/...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ATTM.
S$

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