The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Short-term dryness led to an
introduction of D0 in eastern and northern Maine. Vermont, New
Hampshire and eastern New York also shared in a slight reduction of D0
compared to last week. Moderate rains across a good portion of
Pennsylvania led to 1-category improvements and this trend continued
down into parts of northwestern Maryland, West Virginia and western
Virginia. In the Carolinas, favorable rains improved the D1 along
coastal South Carolina and led to a reduction of D0 in eastern North
Carolina as well. Low streamflows and ground water levels have led toa
slight expansion of D2 in the Delmarva Peninsula.
The Southeast: Good rains (3 to 5 inches) fell across most of
Tennessee, and parts of central Alabama also shared in good rains last
week, leading to widespread 1-category improvements this week. Alabama
continues to be affected by the long-term nature of multi-year D2-D3
entrenched across the eastern half of the state. This pattern
continues across the border into Georgia, which has not seen much
rainfall oflate either, leading to an expansionof D3 and D4 in
north-central and northwestern locales.
The Midwest: Most of the region registered above-normal temperatures
for the period ending Tuesday morning. In fact, preliminary data show
that July came in at 5-10 degrees above normal for the month of July.
The region continues to be impacted not only by oppressive heat, but
also by depleted soil moisture, desiccated pastures and widespread
crop damages, livestock culling and elevated fire risk. Recent
concerns have now turned to soybeans and water supply as the drought's
duration persists. Some fared a bit better than others; southern
Minnesota and southern and eastern Wisconsin benefitted the most from
rains, leading to general 1-category improvements this week. Rains
also fell across northern Indiana and southern Michigan, leaving
things pretty much unchanged from last week. That said, there is a
slight expansion of D3/D4 across westernand central Indiana. Much of
southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky also saw measurable improvement on
the order of 1-category this week, pushing the drought to the west.
Longer-term impacts still remain even given the short-term relief, but
parts of eastern Kentucky and Ohio are seeing a rebound in
streamflows, which is a good sign. In the western half of the region,
things continue to worsen across Missouriand Arkansas, with continued
deterioration and encroachment of D3 and even D4.
The Great Plains: Expansion is noted across most of the region this
week as abnormally hot temperatures (5 to 10 degrees above normal)
continue to plague the region, bringing stress to pastures, crops,
livestock/wildlife, trees and humans alike. Rainfall during the last
week was confined to small patches in the Black Hills and northeastern
South Dakota andsoutheastern North Dakota. Those areas receiving the
2- to 3-inch rains were improved 1-category in the Dakotas. The same
can't be said to the rest of the region as D1-D3 continue to advance
across more of eastern Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, Kansas,
Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. In Kansas and the Panhandles of
Oklahoma and Texas, D4 has also expanded, given the intense conditions
and extreme impacts being observed. These areas can't seem to shake
off last year's drought and have now been dragged back into it this
year, with the exception being southeastern Texas, which has continued
to see a much more favorable wet pattern the past several months.
In addition to the large geographic footprint of this year's drought,
the quick onset and rapid ramping up of intensity, coupled with
extreme temperatures and subsequent impacts, has really leftan imprint
on those affected and has set this drought apart from anything we have
seen at this scale over the past several decades.
The West: The West remains relatively quiet in most parts, with the
West Coast benefitting from below-normal temperatures last week as
well. Warmer temperaturescontinue to plague the Rockies andFront Range
while precipitation was mostly confined to Arizona andColorado, where
monsoon rains continue to bring relief. Changes this week on the map
are marked by 1-category improvement (from D3 to D2) in north-central
and southwestern Colorado as well as eastern Utah. The same can't be
said for southeastern Colorado, where D3 has now expanded to cover
this region as well as northeastern New Mexico, western Kansas and the
Oklahoma Panhandle. To the north, Montana has seen recent dryness as
well, leading to a slight expansion of D0across the northern tier
counties.
Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Most of the islands continue with the
status quo this week, but deterioration is noted on both Kauai and
Molokai this week, wherelowland dryness continues to hinderpasture
growth and is hampering livestock operations.
Alaska and Puerto Rico remain unchanged this week.
Looking Ahead: The 5-day forecast(August 1-6) calls for a mixed bag of
potential, with the best chancesof precipitation being located over
western Colorado, the northern andCentral Plains (including
northwestern Minnesota), parts of the Upper Midwest, the Northeast and
the Southeast. Temperatures are expected to be above normal in the
Pacific Northwest, Northeast, and Southern Plains while the Northern
Plains may come in a bit cooler than normal.
For the period August 7-11, a continuation of the recent pattern is
expected to persist with above-normal temperatures dominating most of
the country, the areas of exception being the West Coast and Florida.
Below-normal precipitation appears likely in the southern and
east-central Plains spreading into Missouri and northern Arkansas.
Those areas projected to see a greater likelihood of precipitation are
the Four Corners, Upper Great Lakes, Gulf Coast, Atlantic Seaboard and
the northern tier states in the Northeast from New York to Maine.
Author: Mark Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center
Dryness Categories
D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet
in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.
Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate Drought
D2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought
Drought or Dryness Types
S ... Short-Term, typically <6 months (e.g. agricultural, grasslands)
L ... Long-Term, typically >6 months (e.g. hydrology, ecology)
--
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